As of July 13, 2026, the Given Analytics daily brief reads the economic backdrop as stagflation strong, with 16 of 21 tracked economic series in agreement. Below is that day's video and full transcript — interest rates, labor, credit, and sector conditions — a description of published data. It says nothing about what happens next.
Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/tzospe0mMyA
The current numbers behind this reading
The macro regime above is read from public economic data. Here are several of the underlying releases, each shown with its original source and release date:
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price inflation was 3.3% year over year as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was 4.1% as of July 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve, the federal funds rate was 3.63% as of July 2026.
- According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment was 55.2 as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Treasury, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.73% as of August 28, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve (ICE BofA U.S. High Yield index), the high-yield credit spread was 263 basis points as of August 31, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP growth estimate was 4.8% annualized as of July 1, 2026.
Given Analytics reads this combination of published conditions as stagflation strong — 16 of 21 tracked economic series agree with that reading. That is a description of the environment already visible in the data, updated every trading day. It says nothing about what happens next.
Full transcript
What is the market regime right now?
16 of 21 series are aligned with a stagflation-strong configuration this morning. That is a moderately high level of systematic agreement across the engine. The current Macro Regime is STAGFLATION STRONG, with a Confirmation Score of 16 out of 21.
What does this regime mean, and how often has it held?
In the framework, this Macro Regime means growth momentum is decelerating while inflation momentum is accelerating at the same time, a combination the math labels as stagflationary pressure. Growth momentum is measured at a negative rate-of-change reading near -0.18, indicating broad softening across activity indicators such as industrial output, hiring, and real spending. Inflation momentum prints positive, around +0.02, capturing the mathematical signature of price pressures building across goods and services. The Coherence Score sits in a moderate zone, and the Confirmation Score of 16 out of 21 reflects that most of the 21 series agree with this configuration. By our framework’s reckoning, regimes with this level of Confirmation Score persisted in roughly 41% of comparable cases over three-month windows, with the most commonly observed next regime being an acceleration phase rather than outright disinflation. Compared to last week, confirmation has firmed inside the stagflation reading, and the Chicago Fed’s activity index has improved over the past two sessions, even as the broader growth composite remains negative. Historically, environments like this have felt like markets grinding: broad equity indexes making limited net progress while sector and asset-class rotations do more of the work — a record of past behavior, not a forecast.
What else is the framework tracking today?
Four signals round out the picture today.
What are interest rates and yields signaling?
First, the Treasury yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.54%, the 2-year around 4.16%, and the 30-year close to 5.05%, leaving a modestly positive 10s–2s spread. Markets watch this curve because it connects growth expectations, inflation compensation, and policy stance in one shape. The question it raises for portfolio decision-makers is whether this combination of elevated nominal yields and a gently upward-sloping curve still aligns with how much duration and interest-rate risk they are comfortable carrying. In our framework's reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with bond markets delivering more sideways total-return profiles over the following quarter — a record of past behavior, not a forecast. What would challenge this read is a sharp re-steepening driven by falling short rates or a renewed inversion that pushes the spread back below zero.
What is the labor market showing?
Second, labor and real-economy tone, as reflected in nonfarm payrolls and related activity measures. The engine flags the nonfarm payrolls series as RED in momentum terms, meaning the recent rate of change has weakened enough to register as unfavorable under the framework. Markets track payrolls because they sit at the center of income, consumption, and credit quality. The question investors tend to ask themselves is whether softer hiring changes how much cyclical and credit risk they are comfortable carrying. In our framework's reading of comparable conditions, this roughly coincided with credit markets becoming more discriminating over subsequent months — spreads on lower-quality bonds widening relative to higher-quality debt — a record of past behavior, not a forecast. A clear challenge to this read would be a sustained re-acceleration in hiring or a series of upside surprises in employment reports.
What are credit spreads indicating?
Third, credit spreads themselves. High-yield credit spreads (the extra yield investors demand to hold riskier corporate bonds relative to Treasuries) currently sit in a normal range, but the engine tags their momentum as YELLOW, meaning neutral to slightly unfavorable. Markets watch this because credit spreads condense a view of perceived default risk and economic resilience. The question it raises is whether current pricing still matches each institution’s view of underlying credit fundamentals, or whether caution around weaker balance sheets feels more appropriate. In our framework's reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with episodes where lower-quality credit underperformed higher-quality credit over the following months — again, a record of past behavior, not a forecast. What would challenge this reading would be a sustained tightening of spreads alongside improving corporate earnings and stronger labor data.
Which sectors are leading right now?
Fourth, equity sector rotation and commodities. Technology and healthcare indexes have softened, while materials, energy, and industrials have strengthened, and crude oil has climbed toward the mid-$70s per barrel. The engine marks cyclical sectors and energy as GREEN, defined as favorable momentum with prices gaining and breadth improving, while some defensive and growth sectors show neutral to negative momentum. Markets care about this pattern because it hints at where earnings power and inflation sensitivity are showing up in prices. The question is whether this tilt toward cyclicals and real assets changes how much sector concentration or diversification investors feel comfortable holding. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with stretches where broad indexes moved more sideways while leadership rotated beneath the surface — past behavior only, not a forecast. A challenge to this configuration would be a reversal where technology and defensives regain relative strength and energy and materials fade.
What conditions is the framework watching next?
The conditional map inside the engine highlights two IF-THEN structures. If the 10-year Treasury yield crosses 4.45% and holds that level for five consecutive sessions: in our framework's reading, inflation composites historically showed acceleration in roughly 9 of 11 comparable conditions — a historical characterization, not a forecast. In regime terms, that kind of sustained yield move has often appeared within transitions toward stronger inflation momentum. If the Fear and Greed sentiment index drops below 15 and holds there for five consecutive sessions: in our framework’s reading, the regime confirmation score deteriorated in roughly 7 of 9 similar conditions — again, a historical characterization, not a forecast. Under our methodology, that kind of sentiment washout has often coincided with the engine marking a regime-watch flag rather than clean persistence. The map is live. These conditions are being monitored daily across all 21 series.
How does the Given engine work?
Atlas is the automated, rules-based engine inside Given Analytics. It does two things in parallel. First, it publishes a view of the macro environment — the regime, the confirmation score, and the historical base rates we just covered. Second, it runs a fixed four-layer mathematical framework — Price Structure, Rate of Change, Risk Regime, and Market Participation — across 407 liquid symbols every trading day. When all four layers agree on a symbol, Atlas records it as an upside-aligned or downside-aligned condition under the framework — a reading of how the four layers line up, not a trade. These are time-stamped model readings, logged for members to study. The environment view and the condition log sit side by side inside Atlas. They are separate outputs. The regime does not pick the symbols; the four layers do. Members use Atlas to study how the framework has recorded conditions across prior environments — as historical behavior, not as trade selection. Atlas runs the framework. You study the outputs and environment. You decide what to do next. All of this is framed as MAY, POTENTIAL, EDUCATIONAL — context for thinking, never instruction.
Where can I follow this every day?
The Morning Brief is the public surface. The live Atlas dashboard shows the full 21-series regime map, today's Mathematical Conditions across 407 symbols, and the historical archive side by side. Members study the environment and the Atlas outputs each morning. If you want to track this alongside us, the live view is at givenanalytics.com.
How often this updates
A new brief publishes every trading day. The daily Morning Brief and the daily video, both free, carry the same reading in plain English. Founding access is free to try - no credit card - for the first 500 members at givenanalytics.com.
Educational and informational only. Not investment advice. Given Analytics is not a registered investment adviser. Past mathematical conditions are not indicative of future results.