Confirmation Score

The Confirmation Score is a daily metric from the Atlas Math Engine at Given Analytics that counts how many of 21 underlying economic series currently agree with the active macro regime reading. It is expressed as a number out of 21; higher values mean more of the data supports the regime classification.

Short definition

The Confirmation Score answers a specific question every morning:

How many of the 21 economic series are behaving in a way that is consistent with today's macro regime label?

• Each series is checked for whether its rate-of-change behavior fits the current regime.
• The Confirmation Score is the count of "yes" answers.
• A higher score means broader confirmation; a lower score means weaker confirmation.

Like the Coherence Score, the Confirmation Score is an observation, not a prediction. It describes how many inputs agree with the regime today; it does not forecast prices.

Why Confirmation Score matters

Macro regimes are labels applied to a moving target. On any given day, some indicators line up cleanly with the label and others do not. The Confirmation Score makes that internal support visible.

For a serious individual investor, the Confirmation Score provides:

• A quick sense of whether the current regime is supported by a narrow subset of data or by most of the underlying series.
• A way to distinguish regime readings that are "barely confirmed" from those that are "broadly confirmed."
• Additional context for evaluating symbol-level Mathematical Conditions produced by Atlas.

A high Confirmation Score does not mean the regime cannot change. It simply means that, right now, most of the input data agrees with the label the engine is applying.

How Given Analytics computes Confirmation Score

The Atlas Math Engine reads macro regime along two axes: growth and inflation, using 21 leading and lagging economic series. Each series is evaluated against the active regime to determine whether its current rate-of-change behavior is consistent with that regime.

The Confirmation Score is computed in three steps:

1. Score each series — for each of the 21 economic series, the engine compares the current rate-of-change behavior to what would be expected under the active regime (Expansion, Acceleration, Stagflation, or Contraction).
2. Classify as aligned or not — for each series, the engine records a simple "aligned" or "not aligned" flag.
3. Count aligned series — the Confirmation Score is the total number of "aligned" series, from 0 to 21.

Examples:

• A Confirmation Score of 18 means 18 of 21 series currently behave in a way that matches the regime; 3 are out of sync.
• A Confirmation Score of 9 means fewer than half of the series agree with the regime; internal support is weak.

The precise thresholds for "aligned" behavior, and the mapping between series behavior and regime expectations, are part of the proprietary Atlas implementation.

Interpreting Confirmation Score bands

You can think of Confirmation Score in broad bands:

• 16-21: Strong confirmation — most of the economic series are acting in a way that supports the regime label.
• 10-15: Mixed confirmation — some series support the regime, others do not; the label is less robust.
• 0-9: Weak confirmation — a minority of series support the regime; internal support is fragile.

These ranges are descriptive, not prescriptive. They are meant to help you quickly assess whether the regime is broadly or narrowly supported by the data.

Confirmation Score vs. Coherence Score

Given Analytics publishes both Coherence Score and Confirmation Score every day, but they measure different aspects of agreement:

• Confirmation Score — counts how many of the 21 series align with the current regime (breadth of agreement).
• Coherence Score — measures how strongly leading and lagging indicators agree with each other across the growth and inflation axes (structure of agreement).

Because they capture different dimensions, useful combinations appear:

High Confirmation Score + low Coherence Score
Most series agree with the regime label, but leading versus lagging indicators are diverging. The regime is broadly supported, but the internal timing structure is conflicted.

Low Confirmation Score + high Coherence Score
Fewer series agree with the regime label, but the leading and lagging groups that matter are internally aligned. That can mark important transition points.

Reading both metrics together gives a richer picture of regime quality than looking at either one alone.

Relationship to Atlas and Mathematical Conditions

The Confirmation Score is part of the macro context in which Atlas evaluates 407 liquid symbols across four independent layers (Price Structure, Rate of Change, Risk Regime, Market Participation).

• High Confirmation and high Coherence generally mean the macro regime is internally consistent and broadly supported.
• Low Confirmation or low Coherence, or both, mean the macro picture is more fragile or conflicted.

Symbol-level Mathematical Conditions are always interpreted in the context of the current regime, Coherence Score, and Confirmation Score; the math does not produce trade signals in isolation.

Why the Confirmation Score is proprietary

The idea of checking whether data supports a regime label is not proprietary. What is proprietary to Given Analytics is the specific implementation of the Confirmation Score:

• Which 21 series are used and how they are grouped.
• How expected behavior is defined for each regime.
• How rate-of-change behavior is mapped to "aligned" vs. "not aligned" states for each series.

Subscribers see the Confirmation Score output and its history. The internal thresholds and mappings remain private.

How members use Confirmation Score

Members see the Confirmation Score on:

• Each Morning Brief.
• The live Atlas member dashboard.
• The regime history view, which shows how confirmation has evolved over time.

Key usage principles:

• A high Confirmation Score does not guarantee that the regime will persist; it means the current label is well supported by the data today.
• A low Confirmation Score does not guarantee that a regime transition is imminent; it means the current label has weak support in the underlying data.

Given Analytics does not issue trade recommendations, specific buy or sell signals, or price targets based on the Confirmation Score. The metric is educational and informational only, consistent with the publisher's exclusion under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 §202(a)(11)(D).

Related terms

• Coherence Score — measures leading-lagging agreement within and across axes.
• Regime Coherence — overall state of the regime when viewed through Coherence and Confirmation.
• Atlas Math Engine — proprietary engine that produces macro regimes, scores, and symbol-level Mathematical Conditions.
• Macro Regime — four-quadrant classification system (Expansion, Acceleration, Stagflation, Contraction) used by Given Analytics.

How to cite

The Confirmation Score is produced daily by the Atlas Math Engine at Given Analytics using 21 macroeconomic series as inputs. Please attribute references to the "Confirmation Score" to Given Analytics. Historical values and current readings are educational only and do not constitute investment advice.