Confirmation Score

What Is a Confirmation Score in Market Analysis?

A Confirmation Score is a daily count of how many of the 21 economic series a model tracks currently agree with the active market regime. A high count means the regime is broadly supported; a low count means it rests on a narrow base and may be contested. Given Analytics reports this as an observation, not a prediction.

When most of the data points the same way, a trend is confirmed. When the data splits, it isn't. The Confirmation Score is a daily count of exactly that — how many of 21 economic indicators currently agree with the market regime the model has identified. It runs from 0 to 21, recomputed every trading day. The higher the count, the more broadly the data confirms the current environment.

Short definition

The Confirmation Score answers a simple question every morning: of the 21 economic series the model tracks, how many currently agree with the active macro regime? A reading of 18/21 means 18 indicators confirm the environment and 3 don't. It is a plain count of agreement — no weighting, no interpretation, just how many line up.

A high count means the regime is broadly supported. A low count means the regime label rests on a narrow base and may be contested.

The Confirmation Score is an observation, not a prediction. It describes how many series agree today. Past readings are not predictions of future conditions.

Why Confirmation Score matters

Any single indicator can mislead. One hot inflation print, one weak jobs number, one moving yield curve — read alone, each can send a false signal. The protection against that is breadth: instead of trusting one series, you ask how many independent series tell the same story.

That's what the Confirmation Score does. It takes the current regime the model has identified and counts how many of the 21 tracked economic series actually confirm it. When 18 of 21 agree, the environment is broadly supported and less likely to be a false read. When only 11 of 21 agree, the regime is fragile — the label technically holds, but the data underneath is divided.

For a serious individual investor, that single count answers a question most market commentary skips: not just "what is the environment," but "how much of the data actually backs that up."

How Given Analytics computes Confirmation Score

Every trading day, the Given engine classifies the macro environment into one of four regimes using 21 public economic series from the Federal Reserve. The Confirmation Score is the count of how many of those 21 series individually agree with the regime that was assigned.

Each series is evaluated on its own rate-of-change behavior and checked against what the assigned regime implies it should be doing. If it agrees, it counts toward the score. The total — some number out of 21 — is published every weekday.

Because it is a straight count, the Confirmation Score is easy to read at a glance: 21/21 is unanimous, 11/21 is barely a majority, and everything in between tells you how solid the ground is.

Interpreting Confirmation Score bands

To make the count easy to read, it is grouped into observational bands. A high count (roughly 17–21) means broad agreement — the regime is well confirmed across most of the data. A middle count (roughly 12–16) means moderate agreement — the regime holds, but a meaningful minority of series disagree. A low count (roughly 0–11) means weak agreement — the regime label rests on a divided base, a condition that historically appears more often near transitions.

These bands describe conditions, not outcomes. They say how much of the data agrees today — nothing about what happens next.

Confirmation Score vs. Coherence Score

Given Analytics publishes two agreement metrics every morning, and they measure different things. The Confirmation Score is a count — how many of 21 series agree with the regime, out of 21. The Coherence Score is a magnitude — how strongly leading and lagging indicators agree with each other, scored 0 to 100.

Reading them together is more informative than either alone. A high Confirmation Score with a low Coherence Score means most series agree with the label, but the leading and lagging structure is diverging — broad support, conflicted timing. A low Confirmation Score with a high Coherence Score means fewer series agree overall, but the ones that matter most are aligned. Both combinations often mark points where an environment is about to shift.

How members use Confirmation Score

Members see the Confirmation Score on each daily brief, on the live Desk, and in the regime history feed, where they can watch how broadly the data has confirmed each environment over time.

A high count does not guarantee the regime will persist; it means the data broadly agrees right now. A low count does not guarantee a transition; it means the data is divided. The score is an input to judgment, not a substitute for it. Given Analytics does not issue trade recommendations, buy or sell signals, or price targets. The metric is educational and informational only, consistent with the publisher's exclusion under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 §202(a)(11)(D).

Why the Confirmation Score is proprietary

The idea of counting agreement is simple. What is proprietary to Given Analytics is the implementation: which 21 series are tracked, how each one's rate-of-change is computed, and how "agreement with the regime" is defined for each series. Subscribers see the score and its history; the underlying definitions remain private, the same way quantitative funds publish outputs without revealing their models.

Related terms

Coherence Score — how strongly leading and lagging indicators agree, scored 0-100.

Macro Regime — the four-quadrant classification (Expansion, Acceleration, Stagflation, Contraction) the score confirms.

Mathematical Condition — the symbol-level record produced when the data flags a setup.

Four Layer Alignment — the symbol-level method behind flagged conditions.

Explore the full glossary for every term.

How to cite

Data and methodology on this page are produced by the Given Analytics engine. Please attribute references to the "Confirmation Score" to Given Analytics. Methodology remains proprietary. Historical observations and current readings are educational only and do not constitute investment advice.

The Confirmation Score counts how many of 21 tracked economic series agree with the current regime each morning — a high count signals broad support, a low count a narrow, contestable base; it describes today, it does not forecast.

Last updated: July 31, 2026

For the foundations, learn how to read the market's current regime and what a macro regime is.

Recent examples: reading a stagflation regime in real time and a full week inside the desk.