As of June 25, 2026, the Given Analytics daily brief reads the economic backdrop as stagflation mild, with 14 of 21 tracked economic series in agreement. Below is that day's video and full transcript — interest rates, labor, credit, and sector conditions — a description of published data. It says nothing about what happens next.
Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/PVltfHJjBso
The current numbers behind this reading
The macro regime above is read from public economic data. Here are several of the underlying releases, each shown with its original source and release date:
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price inflation was 3.3% year over year as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was 4.1% as of July 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve, the federal funds rate was 3.63% as of July 2026.
- According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment was 55.2 as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Treasury, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.73% as of August 28, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve (ICE BofA U.S. High Yield index), the high-yield credit spread was 263 basis points as of August 31, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP growth estimate was 4.8% annualized as of July 1, 2026.
Given Analytics reads this combination of published conditions as stagflation mild — 14 of 21 tracked economic series agree with that reading. That is a description of the environment already visible in the data, updated every trading day. It says nothing about what happens next.
Full transcript
What is the market regime right now?
14 of 21 series are aligned with STAGFLATION MILD this morning. That is a moderate level of systematic agreement across the macro map under the framework.
What else is the framework tracking today?
The current Macro Regime is STAGFLATION MILD, with a Confirmation Score of 14 out of 21.
What does this regime mean, and how often has it held?
In this configuration, the engine is observing an environment where growth momentum is decelerating while inflation momentum is accelerating simultaneously, a mild stagflation profile in the math. The Macro Regime label captures that coexistence of softer growth readings and building price pressures, not a narrative about outcomes. The Coherence Score sits in a moderate band, and the same 14‑of‑21 Confirmation Score marks a regime map where most, but not all, series line up with this stagflationary configuration. By our framework’s reckoning of comparable historical conditions, regimes with a Confirmation Score in this range have persisted in roughly 41% of cases over rolling three‑month windows, with the most frequently observed next state being an Acceleration‑style environment. Compared to last week, the Confirmation Score is unchanged at 14, while both the growth and inflation readings have nudged further into their respective deceleration and acceleration zones, tightening the mild stagflation signature. Historically, environments like this have felt choppy across markets in the sample we studied, with sector‑differentiated equity behavior and uneven bond performance as price and rate complexes absorb cross‑currents from growth and inflation.
What are interest rates and yields signaling?
Turning to signals, the first lens is the rate complex and volatility. The MOVE index prints at 65.39, in a NORMAL zone near the 7.9th percentile over the past two years, and the 10‑year term structure sits below the 4.45% trigger the framework tracks, leaving the rate complex in a RED momentum band defined as subdued yields relative to that threshold combined with soft rate volatility. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with gradual, non‑trend rate adjustments and modest pressure on longer‑duration bonds within the following quarter — an observation under our methodology, not a forecast.
What is the labor market showing?
The second signal is labor. Payrolls and claims series — including PAYEMS and ICSA, both currently in RED momentum based on softening payroll growth and claims drifting higher — contribute to the growth deceleration reading. RED in this context is defined as negative or weakening rate of change relative to recent history, not a judgment on the economy. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with flatter equity index trajectories and more defensive sector tilts over one to three months, an internal characterization of how the data behaved, not a forward statement.
What are credit spreads indicating?
Third, credit markets sit in a cautious but functional zone. Credit spreads have not blown out, but geopolitics and the perceived path of future rate cuts have embedded a conservative tone, which the engine classifies as YELLOW momentum — defined as stable prices with rising dispersion across issuers. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with ongoing access to funding but tighter lending standards over subsequent quarters, an observation under our methodology, not a forecast.
Which sectors are leading right now?
Finally, equity sector behavior offers a fourth signal. Technology and Energy are softer, while Healthcare, Utilities, Materials, Industrials, and Long Bonds show GREEN momentum, defined as positive price change with supportive breadth. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with defensives and select industrials maintaining relative strength over the next one to three months, while more speculative growth segments experienced higher variance — an internal description of the historical record, not prescriptive guidance.
What conditions is the framework watching next?
The conditional map the engine tracks adds two specific triggers. If the 10‑year yield crosses 4.45% and holds for five consecutive sessions: in our framework’s reading, inflation composite acceleration appeared in roughly 9 of 11 comparable conditions — a historical characterization, not a forecast. Under a STAGFLATION MILD regime, that configuration is tagged as a potential Expansion‑to‑Acceleration transition in the math, not a directional call. If Fear & Greed drops below 15 and holds for five consecutive sessions: in our framework’s reading, regime confirmation deterioration appeared in roughly 7 of 9 comparable conditions — again, a historical characterization. In this environment, that would register as a regime watch flag rather than a binary signal. The map is live. These conditions are being monitored daily across all 21 series.
How does the Given engine work?
Atlas is the automated, rules‑based engine inside Given Analytics. It does two things in parallel. First, it publishes a view of the macro environment — the regime, the confirmation score, and the historical base rates we just covered. Second, it runs a fixed four-layer mathematical framework — Price Structure, Rate of Change, Risk Regime, and Market Participation — across 407 symbols every trading day. When all four layers agree on a symbol, Atlas records it as an upside‑aligned or downside‑aligned condition under the framework — a reading of how the four layers line up, not a trade. These are time‑stamped model readings, logged for members to study. The environment view and the condition log sit side by side inside Atlas. They are separate outputs. The regime does not pick the symbols; the four layers do. Members use Atlas to study how the framework has recorded conditions across prior environments — as historical behavior, not as trade selection. Atlas runs the framework. You study the outputs and environment. You decide what to do next. MAY, POTENTIAL, and EDUCATIONAL all describe the way these readings are framed under the methodology, not outcomes.
Where can I follow this every day?
The Morning Brief is the public surface. The live Atlas dashboard shows the full 21-series regime map, today’s Mathematical Conditions across 407 symbols, and the historical archive side by side. Members study the environment and the Atlas outputs each morning. If you want to track this alongside us, the live view is at givenanalytics.com.
How often this updates
A new brief publishes every trading day. The daily Morning Brief and the daily video, both free, carry the same reading in plain English. Founding access is free to try - no credit card - for the first 500 members at givenanalytics.com.
Educational and informational only. Not investment advice. Given Analytics is not a registered investment adviser. Past mathematical conditions are not indicative of future results.