As of June 30, 2026, the Given Analytics daily brief reads the economic backdrop as stagflation mild, with 14 of 21 tracked economic series in agreement. Below is that day's video and full transcript — interest rates, labor, credit, and sector conditions — a description of published data. It says nothing about what happens next.
Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/7x75T2UA9Hc
The current numbers behind this reading
The macro regime above is read from public economic data. Here are several of the underlying releases, each shown with its original source and release date:
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price inflation was 3.3% year over year as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was 4.1% as of July 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve, the federal funds rate was 3.63% as of July 2026.
- According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment was 55.2 as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Treasury, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.73% as of August 28, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve (ICE BofA U.S. High Yield index), the high-yield credit spread was 263 basis points as of August 31, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP growth estimate was 4.8% annualized as of July 1, 2026.
Given Analytics reads this combination of published conditions as stagflation mild — 14 of 21 tracked economic series agree with that reading. That is a description of the environment already visible in the data, updated every trading day. It says nothing about what happens next.
Full transcript
What is the market regime right now?
14 of 21 series are aligned with STAGFLATION MILD this morning. That is a moderate, systematic agreement around decelerating growth and gently accelerating inflation across the 21 series. The current Macro Regime is STAGFLATION MILD, with a Confirmation Score of 14 out of 21.
What does this regime mean, and how often has it held?
In this configuration, the Macro Regime reflects growth momentum decelerating at DECEL () while inflation momentum is mildly accelerating at ACCEL (), a combination the framework classifies as stagflationary but not extreme. The Coherence Score is MODERATE, and the Confirmation Score 14 out of 21 corresponds to a regime alignment that is neither marginal nor fully saturated. By our historical math, regimes with this Confirmation Score level persisted in roughly 41% of comparable conditions over three-month windows. Compared to last week, confirmation moved into this same 14-series zone, reinforcing the reading of STAGFLATION MILD without shifting into a different regime label. Historically, environments like this have felt like grinding conditions in markets, with cross-asset behavior clustering around choppier equity performance, firmer inflation-linked assets, and more nuanced moves in rates — a description of past behavior, not a prescription.
What are interest rates and yields signaling?
On the yield side, the engine is monitoring the 10-year Treasury and the 10Y–2Y curve. Curve-related indicators such as T10Y2Y are marked RED, meaning unfavorable momentum where the rate of change in curve steepness crosses a negative threshold defined by the framework. In our framework's reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with more constrained risk-taking and a tilt toward quality within 3–9 month windows -- an observation under our methodology, not a forecast.
What else is the framework tracking today?
In the labor complex, PAYEMS and ICSA jointly frame employment momentum as RED. RED here denotes unfavorable momentum where payroll growth and jobless claims deteriorate beyond the engine’s bands. In our framework's reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with slower aggregate demand growth and more defensive sector behavior within 3–6 months -- an observation under our methodology, not a forecast.
What else is the framework tracking today?
Credit and funding conditions are inferred from spreads and the volatility complex, where VIX at 17.56, VVIX at 88.71, and MOVE at 66.79 all sit in NORMAL ranges with Fear & Greed at 27.2 in FEAR territory. The framework treats NORMAL volatility with FEAR sentiment as a YELLOW momentum configuration, indicating mixed but non-extreme stress. In our framework's reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with sideways-to-choppy risk-asset behavior within 1–3 months -- an observation under our methodology, not a forecast.
What else is the framework tracking today?
On the equity and sector side, Technology strength and Materials weakness point to rotation within the STAGFLATION MILD context. Sector dispersion of this kind is treated as YELLOW to GREEN for parts of growth and RED for cyclicals. In our framework's reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with more pronounced intra-market dispersion rather than uniform trend moves within 1–6 months -- an observation under our methodology, not a forecast.
What else is the framework tracking today?
If the 10Y yield crosses 4.45% and holds for 5 consecutive sessions: in our framework's reading, inflation composites showed acceleration in roughly 9 of 11 comparable conditions -- a historical characterization, not a forecast. Under the current regime, such a move would simply be logged as a stronger mathematical case for an Expansion-to-Acceleration transition in the record.
What else is the framework tracking today?
If the Fear and Greed Index drops below 15 and holds for 5 consecutive sessions: in our framework's reading, confirmation scores deteriorated in roughly 7 of 9 comparable conditions -- a historical characterization, not a forecast. In the present STAGFLATION MILD regime, that kind of sentiment deterioration would register as a regime watch flag rather than an automatic regime change. The map is live. These conditions are being monitored daily across all 21 series.
How does the Given engine work?
Atlas is the automated, rules-based engine inside Given Analytics. It does two things in parallel. First, it publishes a view of the macro environment — the regime, the confirmation score, and the historical base rates we just covered. Second, it runs a fixed four-layer mathematical framework — Price Structure, Rate of Change, Risk Regime, and Market Participation — across 407 liquid symbols every trading day. When all four layers agree on a symbol, Atlas records it as an upside-aligned or downside-aligned condition under the framework — a reading of how the four layers line up, not a trade. These are time-stamped model readings, logged for members to study. The environment view and the condition log sit side by side inside Atlas. They are separate outputs. The regime does not pick the symbols; the four layers do. Members use Atlas to study how the framework has recorded conditions across prior environments — as historical behavior, not as trade selection. Atlas runs the framework. You study the outputs and environment. You decide what to do next. MAY, POTENTIAL, and EDUCATIONAL are the core framing principles around how Atlas and the 21 series are presented: as a way to study how 407 symbols and four layers have behaved in the past, not as instructions.
Where can I follow this every day?
The Morning Brief is the public surface. The live Atlas dashboard shows the full 21-series regime map, today's Mathematical Conditions across 407 symbols, and the historical archive side by side. Members study the environment and the Atlas outputs each morning. If you want to track this alongside us, the live view is at givenanalytics.com.
How often this updates
A new brief publishes every trading day. The daily Morning Brief and the daily video, both free, carry the same reading in plain English. Founding access is free to try - no credit card - for the first 500 members at givenanalytics.com.
Educational and informational only. Not investment advice. Given Analytics is not a registered investment adviser. Past mathematical conditions are not indicative of future results.