As of August 13, 2026, the Given Analytics daily brief reads the economic backdrop as acceleration strong, with 17 of 21 tracked economic series in agreement. Below is that day's video and full transcript — interest rates, labor, credit, and sector conditions — a description of published data. It says nothing about what happens next.
Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/7keWS08s_-Y
The current numbers behind this reading
The macro regime above is read from public economic data. Here are several of the underlying releases, each shown with its original source and release date:
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price inflation was 3.3% year over year as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was 4.1% as of July 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve, the federal funds rate was 3.63% as of July 2026.
- According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment was 55.2 as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Treasury, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.73% as of August 28, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve (ICE BofA U.S. High Yield index), the high-yield credit spread was 263 basis points as of August 31, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP growth estimate was 4.8% annualized as of July 1, 2026.
Given Analytics reads this combination of published conditions as acceleration strong — 17 of 21 tracked economic series agree with that reading. That is a description of the environment already visible in the data, updated every trading day. It says nothing about what happens next.
Full transcript
What is the market regime right now?
17 of 21 series are aligned with ACCELERATION STRONG this morning. That is broad confirmation across the framework’s 21-series map. The current Macro Regime is ACCELERATION STRONG, with a Confirmation Score of 17 out of 21.
What does this regime mean, and how often has it held?
The Macro Regime reads as growth momentum accelerating while inflation momentum is also accelerating. In plain terms, the growth composite is still moving higher, and the inflation composite is also moving higher; that pairing keeps the regime in a tight, data-defined lane rather than a loose narrative one. The Coherence Score is 17 of 21, and the Confirmation Score is 17 of 21 as well, which places the framework in a moderate but still clearly aligned state. By the framework’s historical sample, comparable conditions held for three months in 47% of observed instances. Compared with last week, confirmation has stayed at 17 of 21, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker improved over the past two sessions. Across markets, environments like this have historically shown firm commodities, pressure on bonds, and close attention on inflation-sensitive real assets — a record of past behavior, not a forecast.
What are interest rates and yields signaling?
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.70% sits above the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.22%, leaving a 48-basis-point curve spread. That is a RED rate signal in the framework because longer yields remain elevated relative to recent history and keep discount rates firm. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with pressure in duration-sensitive assets within the following weeks — an observation under our methodology, not a forecast. The question the data raises is whether this rate level continues to challenge valuation-sensitive market segments.
What is the labor market showing?
Nonfarm payrolls and the broader labor backdrop have softened enough to change rate expectations. That is a YELLOW labor signal when hiring slows but does not collapse, and RED when the cooling is strong enough to alter the policy path. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with markets reassessing Fed timing within subsequent sessions — a record of past behavior, not a forecast. The question is whether the labor slowdown is temporary noise or a broader sign of cooling demand.
What else is the framework tracking today?
Credit and policy tone remain tied together here. The Fed held rates steady, but the communication sounded more hawkish, and the bond market sold off after that message. That is a RED credit-and-rates signal in the framework, defined by firmer policy rhetoric and higher compensation for holding duration. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with tighter financial conditions and more selective risk appetite within the next several weeks — an observation under our methodology, not a forecast. The question is whether current pricing is absorbing restrictive policy or simply tolerating it for now.
Which sectors are leading right now?
Technology, gold, and real estate were firmer overnight, while materials lagged. That cross-asset mix is a GREEN sector read when growth-sensitive leadership and inflation hedges both attract interest, even as cyclicals remain uneven. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this roughly coincided with sector dispersion persisting through the following sessions — a historical characterization, not a forecast. The question is whether leadership remains narrow or broadens across the tape.
What else is the framework tracking today?
If the 10-year yield crosses 4.45% and holds for five consecutive sessions: in our framework’s reading, inflation acceleration appeared in 9 of 11 comparable conditions — a historical characterization, not a forecast. That would add weight to the current rate-sensitive reading without changing the fact that the regime is observed, not assumed. If Fear and Greed falls below 15 and holds for five consecutive sessions: in our framework’s reading, confirmation deteriorated in 7 of 9 comparable conditions — a historical characterization, not a forecast. That would weaken the coherence of the present map. The map is live. These conditions are being monitored daily across all 21 series.
How does the Given engine work?
The Given engine is the automated, rules-based engine inside Given Analytics. The Given engine does two things in parallel. First, it publishes a view of the macro environment — the regime, the confirmation score, and the historical base rates we just covered. Second, the Given engine runs a fixed four-layer mathematical framework — Price Structure, Rate of Change, Risk Regime, and Market Participation — across 407 symbols every trading day, independently of regime. When all four layers agree on a symbol, the Given engine records it as an upside-aligned or downside-aligned condition under the framework — a reading of how the four layers line up, not a trade. These are time-stamped model readings, logged for members to study. The environment view and the condition log sit side by side inside the Given engine. They are separate outputs. The regime does not pick the symbols; the four layers do. Members use the Given engine to study how the framework has recorded conditions across prior environments — as historical behavior, not as trade selection. The Given engine runs the framework. You study the outputs and environment. You decide what to do next. MAY POTENTIAL EDUCATIONAL.
Where can I follow this every day?
Every trading day, this is free: watch real symbols go active in live markets at the price it is happening, see which sectors are leading, and learn to read what is driving it yourself. That live view is the Observation Desk — the same 21 series and 407 symbols founding members study each morning, the environment underneath every move. If you want to watch it alongside us, the live view is at givenanalytics.com — free to try, no credit card, for the first 500 founding members. Watch it before you risk a dollar. You decide.
How often this updates
A new brief publishes every trading day. The daily Morning Brief and the daily video, both free, carry the same reading in plain English. Founding access is free to try - no credit card - for the first 500 members at givenanalytics.com.
Educational and informational only. Not investment advice. Given Analytics is not a registered investment adviser. Past mathematical conditions are not indicative of future results.