As of September 25, 2026, the Given Analytics daily brief reads the economic backdrop as expansion mild, with 16 of 21 tracked economic series in agreement. Below is that day's video and full transcript — interest rates, labor, credit, and sector conditions — a description of published data. It says nothing about what happens next.
The current numbers behind this reading
The macro regime above is read from public economic data. Here are several of the underlying releases, each shown with its original source and release date:
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price inflation was 3.4% year over year as of August 2026.
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was 4.1% as of August 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve, the federal funds rate was 3.63% as of August 2026.
- According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment was 55.2 as of July 2026.
- According to the U.S. Treasury, the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.11% as of September 23, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve (ICE BofA U.S. High Yield index), the high-yield credit spread was 273 basis points as of September 23, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP growth estimate was 5.1% annualized as of July 1, 2026.
Given Analytics reads this combination of published conditions as expansion mild — 16 of 21 tracked economic series agree with that reading. That is a description of the environment already visible in the data, updated every trading day. It says nothing about what happens next.
Full transcript
What is the market regime right now?
16 of 21 series are aligned with EXPANSION MILD this morning. That is substantial systematic agreement across the framework. The current Macro Regime is EXPANSION MILD, with a Confirmation Score of 16 out of 21.
What does this regime mean, and how often has it held?
The Macro Regime means growth momentum is accelerating while inflation momentum is decelerating. The Coherence Score is moderate, with 16 of 21 series aligned and historical persistence of 61% across 15 comparable instances over three-month periods. Compared to the prior week, growth momentum has firmed within the framework’s reading, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker the largest recent mover over the past two sessions. Markets in environments like this have historically shown stronger performance in growth-sensitive and cyclical areas, calmer credit conditions, weaker relative behavior in gold, and cash trailing broader assets — a record of past price behavior, not a forecast. The question is whether that historical context changes how much risk, patience, or exposure feels appropriate, and what would challenge the interpretation: renewed growth deterioration or inflation re-acceleration.
What are interest rates and yields signaling?
The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.11%, while the 2-year yield is 4.85%, leaving a 0.31 percentage-point spread. Rate momentum is RED because the 10-year yield crossing 4.45% and holding for five sessions historically coincided with inflation acceleration in roughly 9 of 11 comparable conditions. Markets watch yields because they translate inflation and policy expectations into financing pressure across the economy. The question is whether this yield configuration confirms or challenges current pricing. A record of past behavior, not a forecast, and what would challenge it is a sustained decline in long-term yields.
What is the labor market showing?
The labor-market signal is represented by initial jobless claims, a measure of new unemployment filings, which the framework marks GREEN. That designation means the indicator’s current momentum aligns with favorable conditions under the framework’s rules. Markets watch claims because they provide an early read on whether employment is cooling or cracking. The question is whether labor resilience changes how much economic risk feels comfortable to carry. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, this configuration supported the EXPANSION reading in the observed sample over three-month periods — an observation under our methodology, not a forecast. What would challenge this: claims rising persistently or broader hiring weakening.
What else is the framework tracking today?
Inflation is represented by core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy to show underlying price pressure, and the framework marks them GREEN. GREEN means momentum is moving in the favorable direction defined by the model, here consistent with decelerating inflation momentum. Markets watch core prices because they influence the path of monetary policy and real purchasing power. The question is whether this moderation is sufficient to challenge elevated rate pricing. Historically, comparable configurations coincided with calmer inflation pressure across subsequent months — a record of past behavior, not a forecast. What would challenge this: renewed acceleration in core prices or services inflation.
What are credit spreads indicating?
Credit conditions remain broadly resilient, while the bond-market volatility index is 104.58, at the 88.3rd percentile of its two-year range. Credit markets matter because they show whether financing stress is spreading beyond government bonds. The question is whether elevated rate volatility confirms or challenges the calm implied by equity volatility. In our framework’s reading of comparable periods, credit conditions held together in similar environments across observed subsequent weeks and months — a historical record, not a forecast. What would challenge this: widening high-yield credit spreads or disorderly funding conditions.
Which sectors are leading right now?
Across sectors, healthcare rose 0.63% overnight while materials fell 1.19%, industrials declined 0.75%, and utilities fell 0.98%. Sector leadership matters because it reveals which parts of the market are receiving relative support. The question is whether this dispersion changes how much exposure or patience feels appropriate. Historically, cyclical and growth-oriented groups frequently led under comparable EXPANSION readings, while gold often lagged — a record of past behavior, not a forecast. What would challenge this: sustained defensive leadership alongside weakening breadth.
What else is the framework tracking today?
If the 10-year yield crosses 4.45% and holds for five consecutive sessions: in our framework’s reading, inflation acceleration appeared in roughly 9 of 11 comparable conditions — a historical characterization, not a forecast. That would increase the mathematical case for an Expansion-to-Acceleration transition, without determining what markets do next.
What else is the framework tracking today?
If Fear and Greed drops below 15 and holds for five consecutive sessions: in our framework’s reading, confirmation deteriorated in roughly 7 of 9 comparable conditions — a historical characterization, not a forecast. That would formally lower the confidence level and create a regime-watch flag. The map is live. These conditions are being monitored daily across all 21 series.
How does the Given engine work?
The Given engine is the automated, rules-based engine inside Given Analytics. It does two things in parallel. First, it publishes a view of the macro environment — the regime, the confirmation score, and the historical base rates we just covered. Second, it runs a fixed four-layer mathematical framework — Price Structure, Rate of Change, Risk Regime, and Market Participation — across 407 liquid symbols every trading day. When all four layers agree on a symbol, the engine records it as an upside-aligned or downside-aligned condition under the framework — a reading of how the four layers line up, not a trade. These are time-stamped model readings, logged for members to study. The environment view and the condition log sit side by side inside the engine. They are separate outputs. The regime does not pick the symbols; the four layers do. Members use the engine to study how the framework has recorded conditions across prior environments — as historical behavior, not as trade selection. The Given engine runs the framework. You study the outputs and environment. You decide what to do next.
Where can I follow this every day?
Every trading day, this is free: watch real symbols go active in live markets at the price it’s happening, see which sectors are leading, and learn to read what’s driving it yourself. That live view is the Observation Desk — the same 21 series and 407 symbols founding members study each morning, the environment underneath every move. If you want to watch it alongside us, the live view is at givenanalytics.com — free to try, no credit card, for the first 500 founding members. Watch it before you risk a dollar. You decide. MAY. POTENTIAL. EDUCATIONAL.
How often this updates
A new brief publishes every trading day. The daily Morning Brief and the daily video, both free, carry the same reading in plain English. Founding access is free to try - no credit card - for the first 500 members at givenanalytics.com.
Educational and informational only. Not investment advice. Given Analytics is not a registered investment adviser. Past mathematical conditions are not indicative of future results.