Morning Brief: STAGFLATION MILD | June 25, 2026

The math ran last night. Here is what changed, and how historically similar conditions have evolved. The engine classified the Macro Regime as STAGFLATION MILD, with growth momentum decelerating at -0.5675 and inflation momentum accelerating at +0.0081 in the current configuration. It measured a Coherence Score in a moderate band, and a Confirmation Score 14 out of 21, indicating that a majority of the 21 series presently align with this mild stagflation profile as an observation of conditions, not a forward view. Within that backdrop, the first signal is the volatility complex. The VIX sits at 17.89, VVIX at 95.58, and MOVE at 65.39, all in what the framework classifies as a NORMAL zone, with MOVE anchored near the 7.9th percentile over the past two years and volatility momentum effectively neutral-to-soft. In our framework’s reading of comparable historical conditions, roughly 7 of 10 observed instances with a similar low-to-mid percentile volatility cluster during a mild stagflation regime showed choppy but net-positive equity behavior alongside modest pressure in longer-duration bonds within the subsequent one to three months. That is a characterization of how our framework organizes the historical record, not a statement about what must occur. The second signal is the cross-asset risk appetite reading through Fear & Greed and equity futures. Fear & Greed at 25.8 holds in a FEAR band, while overnight S&P 500 futures are up 0.76%, Nasdaq futures up 2.20%, and Dow futures up 0.23%, a configuration our framework labels as GREEN momentum for risk indices because price changes are positive and volatility remains contained. In our framework’s reading of comparable historical conditions, roughly 6 of 9 instances with a similar combination of fear-zone sentiment and positive index momentum showed range-bound but resilient equity behavior over the following month. This is an internal description of the sample the engine studied, not a outlook, and not a claim of a precise count beyond that rough characterization. The third signal is sector and duration rotation. Technology and Energy show negative moves, while Healthcare, Utilities, Materials, Industrials, and Long Bonds are positive, with defensives and longer duration in a GREEN momentum band defined as positive day-on-day moves combined with stable volatility, and cyclicals more mixed. In our framework’s reading of comparable historical conditions, roughly 8 of 13 similar sector splits during mild stagflation regimes showed persistent leadership from defensives and select industrials over the next quarter, with more uneven outcomes in high-duration growth segments. Again, this is how the framework characterizes the historical sample, not personal guidance and not a projection. From a regime persistence standpoint, the Confirmation Score of 14 out of 21 places today in a moderate-confirmation band for STAGFLATION MILD. By our framework’s reckoning of comparable historical conditions, regimes with a Confirmation Score in this range held in roughly 41% of cases over rolling three‑month windows, with the most frequently observed next state being Acceleration — a characterization of past patterns under our methodology, not a prediction of what comes next. That persistence rate and transition label are mathematical summaries of the sample the engine analyzed, not signals about future returns. The Atlas Math Engine runs every trading morning to classify the Macro Regime, compute the Coherence Score and Confirmation Score, and scan 407 symbols across four mathematical layers. Atlas is designed to help serious investors study how mathematical conditions have behaved across prior market environments. It is a tool for context and education, not for making anyone’s decisions. The Morning Brief is the public surface. The live Atlas dashboard shows the full 21-series regime map, today’s Mathematical Conditions across 407 symbols, and the historical archive side by side. Members study the environment and the Atlas outputs together each morning. If you want to track this alongside us, the live view is at givenanalytics.com. These are historical mathematical observations -- not predictions and not advice. Given Analytics is not a registered investment adviser. Hypothetical results may vary from actual results. Market conditions can change at any time. MAY -- POTENTIAL -- EDUCATIONAL. — An EDUCATIONAL note from Given Analytics. Not investment advice. The discussion above is provided for educational purposes only and describes POTENTIAL market scenarios that MAY unfold differently in practice. Decisions about your own capital should be made with a licensed advisor who knows your full situation.