Across a 25-year record (2001–2026, 306 months), Given Analytics’ framework classified the U.S. macro environment as Stagflation 34.3% of the time, Contraction 27.1%, Acceleration 23.9%, and Expansion 14.7%. Stagflation-type readings were the most common and the most persistent; Expansion readings were the rarest and the shortest-lived. These are historical frequencies of the framework’s own classifications — educational, not a prediction.
Record: 2001–2026 (306 months) · Source: 21 public FRED series · Updated Q3 2026
How often does each market regime occur?
Given’s Macro Engine reads 21 public FRED series and classifies the environment into one of four regimes by growth direction and inflation direction. Over 306 months of record, the four regimes did not occur equally — one was more than twice as common as another:
| Regime | Share of months (2001–2026) | Typical duration | Longest run |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stagflation (growth ↓, inflation ↑) | 34.3% | ~8.5 months | 21 months |
| Contraction (growth ↓, inflation ↓) | 27.1% | ~6 months | 32 months |
| Acceleration (growth ↑, inflation ↑) | 23.9% | ~5 months | 24 months |
| Expansion (growth ↑, inflation ↓) | 14.7% | ~4 months | 16 months |
Historical frequencies of the framework’s own readings, 2001–2026. Educational, not predictive. Derived from 21 public FRED series.
Which market regime lasts the longest?
Stagflation readings persisted the longest on average — about 8.5 months typically, with the longest observed run reaching 21 months. Contraction readings typically ran about 6 months but had the single longest streak in the record at 32 months. Expansion readings were the shortest-lived, typically about 4 months.
Which regime is most common?
Over the 2001–2026 record, Stagflation-type conditions — decelerating growth alongside accelerating inflation — were the most frequent classification at 34.3% of all months. The clean “good” regime, Expansion (growth rising while inflation cools), was the rarest at 14.7% — roughly one month in seven.
What are the four market regimes?
The framework describes the environment along two axes — the direction of growth momentum and the direction of inflation momentum — producing four regimes. Expansion: growth accelerating, inflation cooling. Acceleration: both growth and inflation accelerating. Stagflation: growth decelerating, inflation accelerating. Contraction: both decelerating. Each is a description of current conditions, not a recommendation.
How is the regime measured?
The classification is computed from 21 public U.S. macroeconomic series published by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system — growth-side series such as industrial production, payrolls, and real activity indices, and inflation-side series such as CPI, PCE, and market-implied breakevens. The reading updates every trading day and is published with a timestamp before outcomes are known.
Is this a forecast of the next regime?
No. These figures describe how the framework classified the past 25 years — they are a record, not a forecast. Given Analytics publishes educational, observational readings of mathematical conditions and does not provide investment advice, recommendations, or predictions. Past classifications and their durations are not indicative of future results.