Over 25 years of data (306 months, 2001-2026), our model has read the market as one of four environments -- Stagflation, Contraction, Acceleration, or Expansion. Stagflation showed up most (about 34% of the time) and clear Expansion least (about 15%). Today's read is Acceleration. These are historical frequencies of the model's own readings -- educational, not predictive.
How often each environment has actually occurred (2001-2026)
- Stagflation: 34% of the time — Across 306 months (2001-2026), the model read a stagflation environment about 34% of the time.
- Contraction: 27% of the time — Across 306 months (2001-2026), the model read a contraction environment about 27% of the time.
- Acceleration: 24% of the time — Across 306 months (2001-2026), the model read a acceleration environment about 24% of the time.
- Expansion: 15% of the time — Across 306 months (2001-2026), the model read a expansion environment about 15% of the time.
How long does a market regime usually last?
Once the model reads a given environment, it tends to persist for a while. Stagflation has typically lasted about 8.5 months (longest on record 21); Contraction has typically lasted about 6 months (longest on record 32); Acceleration has typically lasted about 5 months (longest on record 24); Expansion has typically lasted about 4 months (longest on record 16). These are typical historical durations of the model's own readings -- educational, not a prediction.
What does one environment usually turn into next?
Environments have tended to hand off in recognizable ways: Stagflation has most often been followed by Expansion or Acceleration; Contraction has most often been followed by Expansion or Stagflation; Acceleration has most often been followed by Contraction or Stagflation; Expansion has most often been followed by Acceleration or Stagflation. Historical tendencies of the model's readings -- educational, not a prediction of what comes next.
What environment are we in right now?
The current read is Acceleration -- the same reading published free in today's Morning Brief and daily video. What matters for you is seeing which of the four environments the market is in, because it sets the backdrop under every asset. The free daily read gives you that in plain English.
The public context the data-driven minority watches
These base rates come from our own model's 25-year read of the historical record -- you will not find them anywhere else. The daily read turns that same model into today's environment in plain English.
The current numbers behind this reading
The macro regime above is read from public economic data. Here are several of the underlying releases, each shown with its original source and release date:
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price inflation was 3.5% year over year as of June 2026.
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was 4.2% as of June 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve, the federal funds rate was 3.63% as of July 2026.
- According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment was 49.5 as of June 2026.
- According to the U.S. Treasury, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.7% as of August 3, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve (ICE BofA U.S. High Yield index), the high-yield credit spread was 278 basis points as of August 3, 2026.
- According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP growth estimate was 5.9% annualized as of July 1, 2026.
Given Analytics reads this combination of published conditions as expansion strong — 16 of 21 tracked economic series agree with that reading. That is a description of the environment already visible in the data, updated every trading day. It says nothing about what happens next.
What was actually missing
If the question that brought you here has ever cost you — the trade that reversed, the setup that looked right and wasn't — the thing that was missing usually isn't a better indicator. It's seeing what's actually happening underneath, live, while it happens.
That's what Given shows you, free, every trading day: real symbols going active in live markets — at the price, as it happens — which sectors are leading, and the plain-English read of what's driving the move. You watch it live, and you learn to read it yourself.
The Morning Brief and daily video are free every trading day — no credit card, for the first 500 founding members. Watch it before you risk a dollar. You decide.
Related questions
What data do institutions have that retail doesn't?, How to get institutional-grade analysis free.
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How current is this page?
This page was last reviewed on August 05, 2026; the economic figures above each carry their own official source and release date and are refreshed on a recurring cadence. The daily Morning Brief and the daily video, both free, carry the current reading in plain English. Founding access is free to try — no credit card — for the first 500 members.
Educational and informational only. Not investment advice. Given Analytics is not a registered investment adviser. Past mathematical conditions are not indicative of future results.