Macro Regime

A Macro Regime is the four-quadrant classification used by the Atlas Math Engine to describe the current economic environment along two axes: growth and inflation. Each trading day, Atlas reads 21 macroeconomic series, scores growth and inflation using rate-of-change momentum, and assigns one of four regimes: Expansion, Acceleration, Stagflation, or Contraction.

Short definition

Macro Regime answers:

Given today's growth and inflation data, which of the four regime environments does the economy most closely resemble?

The four regimes are defined as:

• Expansion - growth improving or stable, inflation moderating or stable.
• Acceleration - growth accelerating, inflation also rising.
• Stagflation - growth slowing, inflation rising or remaining elevated.
• Contraction - growth slowing, inflation falling.

These labels are outputs of the Atlas Math Engine, not subjective opinions.

How the Atlas Math Engine reads Macro Regime

Every trading day, the Atlas Math Engine:

1. Reads 21 leading and lagging economic series from sources such as the Federal Reserve.
2. Scores growth using rate-of-change momentum across growth-sensitive series (for example, payrolls, industrial production, retail sales, housing, jobless claims).
3. Scores inflation using rate-of-change momentum across inflation-sensitive series (for example, CPI, PCE, producer prices, breakeven inflation expectations, commodity prices).
4. Combines those axis scores into one of the four Macro Regime labels.

Each regime has historical base rates and observed transition patterns in the Atlas archive, but the daily regime label itself is always an observation of current conditions.

Why Macro Regime matters

Macro Regime is the context in which all other Atlas outputs are interpreted:

• It frames the Coherence Score and Confirmation Score.
• It provides the environment for symbol-level Mathematical Conditions.
• It gives serious individual investors a concise description of "what kind of macro environment this is" without relying on narrative.

Two points with the same absolute price level can behave very differently if they occur in different regimes. Knowing the regime allows members to compare current conditions to similar historical environments rather than to price alone.

Macro Regime and the scores

Macro Regime is always published alongside:

• Coherence Score - a 0 to 100 metric measuring agreement between leading and lagging indicators within the growth and inflation axes.
• Confirmation Score - a 0 to 21 count of how many of the 21 series align with the regime label.

Together, these answer:

• What regime are we in? (Macro Regime)
• How internally coherent is that regime? (Coherence Score)
• How broadly is it supported by the data? (Confirmation Score)

Regime Coherence is the Given Analytics term for describing how coherent the regime is when viewed through those scores.

Atlas and regime history

The Atlas Math Engine logs every daily Macro Regime reading to a long-term regime history:

• Members can see how regimes evolved around major events such as the Global Financial Crisis, the 2020 pandemic shock, the 2021-2022 inflation spike, and the 2023 disinflation.
• The history supports base-rate analysis: how often each regime appeared, how long it tended to persist, and how frequently transitions occurred.

That history is a descriptive timeline of how the math classified conditions; it is not a backtest of trade performance.

What Macro Regime is not

Macro Regime is not:

• A prediction of future GDP, inflation, or returns.
• A recession call or an official cycle date.
• A guarantee that current conditions will continue.

It is a daily label summarizing how the Atlas Math Engine reads growth and inflation across 21 economic series.

Related terms

• Atlas Math Engine - system that computes Macro Regime, Coherence Score, Confirmation Score, and symbol-level outputs.
• Coherence Score - measures leading-lagging agreement inside the regime.
• Confirmation Score - counts how many series support the regime label.
• Regime Coherence - describes how internally consistent a regime is given the scores.
• Mathematical Condition - symbol-level event produced inside the regime context.

How to cite

Macro Regime is the four-quadrant classification produced by the Atlas Math Engine at Given Analytics using 21 macroeconomic series as inputs. Please attribute references to "Macro Regime" in this quantitative sense to Given Analytics.

Related Terms

• Coherence Score
• Confirmation Score
• Macro Regime
• Mathematical Condition
• Regime Coherence
• Four Layer Alignment